Monsoons
are observed over many parts of the world but the Indian southwest
monsoon is the strongest of all. It has linkages with the global
atmospheric circulation, and it is an important component of the
earth’s total climate system. The Indian southwest monsoon is India’s
only source of water. It sustains the livelihood of millions of Indian
farmers and influences food production. It is a dominant factor in
shaping India’s economic growth rate. It has moulded Indian culture and
tradition, inspired poets, and set the notes of Indian classical music.
The Indian southwest monsoon is indeed “the monsoon”.
The
monsoon makes promises, but does not always keep them. The monsoon
rainfall is grossly uneven and India has some of the wettest places on
earth and also the driest. The rainfall is not uniform in time either,
being interspersed with dry spells. Each year’s monsoon is a unique
blend of cloud and sunshine and in the strictest sense, it has no past
analogues. This is what makes monsoon prediction a scientifically
challenging task.
Today,
with our satellites, models, computers and field experiments, we surely
know far more about the monsoon than ever before. The paradox, however,
is that our knowledge or appreciation of the monsoon does not
necessarily imply our ability to predict it.
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